The Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics came to a close on 22 February with a superb finale. Finland did excellently, especially in skiing and ice hockey. In this article we run through the highlights of the Games, Finland's medals and, above all, what bettors learned from these Games for the future.
Finland's medal fight
Finland's skiers shone throughout the Games. The men's relay team took gold, and on the women's side came a bronze. The downhillers reached the finals – a level few had predicted. In the medal table Finland climbed to its best position since the 2010s, and watching from home on Italian time meant the best moments were wrapped up in the middle of the evening.
From a betting standpoint, Finland's total medal count had been forecast in the 5–7 range, so the over (over 7.5 medals) paid out well for those who believed Finnish form was better than the markets had priced. This is a good example of why a little local insight often beats the global bookmaker's algorithm.
Ice hockey – the Lions' road to bronze
Finland's ice hockey team played steadily throughout the tournament. The bronze game ended in a win, and the Lions showed once again that they are among Europe's best. From a betting standpoint, Finland's medal bet (~2.50 at the start of the Games) proved an excellent choice. The participation of NHL players brought level differences between the nations – the most important change compared with the 2018 Pyeongchang Games, where the NHL was not involved.
At the level of individual games, the Lions were a side of consistent performance – every game ended within a 1–2 goal margin. That made the over/under 5.5 goals market – and the "under" picks – particularly profitable as the Games went on.
Skiing – Finland's strong suit
In the skiing events Finland was among the biggest surprises of the Games. The men's relay gold was unexpected – the pre-race odds sat at 4.00–5.00, with Norway the clear favourite. The women's relay bronze reinforces the picture that the Finnish skiing tradition is alive and well. In ski jumping Finland came close to the podium, but again the pre-event odds were high.
For Finnish bettors, their own country is famously the hardest – emotion and probability get mixed up. Markets often price in the "home-country overbet" phenomenon, where Finns back Finland beyond what form warrants. That creates value on the other side (e.g. Norway's odds drift up relative to true strength). At Milano-Cortina, however, Finland met and exceeded expectations, so this time the market inaccuracy favoured the home-country backers.
What does a bettor learn from the Olympics?
- Olympic odds are often more generous than at the World Championships – a smaller audience and less volume
- Small countries like Finland often surprise the bigger favourites – Norway, Germany, the USA
- Study the team line-up carefully – professionals don't always feature, and illness absences can scramble the cards
- At the Winter Olympics, snow conditions and the weather affect results – follow the forecast on a day-by-day basis
- Medal-table bets (top 5 medal nation) offer good value before the Games begin
- An NHL break changes ice hockey betting completely – player-level analysis is critical
Betting markets at the Olympics
Medal-count bet: an over/under-type bet on a country's total medal count. Popular with Finnish bettors – but it's worth checking whether the market is set too low or too high.
Individual medal bet: will a given competitor win a medal (any colour)? The odds here are often 2.00–4.00 for top athletes, and offer better value than a pure gold-medal bet.
Gold-medal bet: higher odds, but considerably riskier. Only the clear favourites are worth playing.
Top medal nation: which country wins the most medals at the Games? Odds in the 1.20–8.00 range depending on the country.
Tips for the next major championships
The next skiing World Championships will be held in February 2027. From there, the lead-up to the 2030 Olympics (France) begins. A good bettor starts following years before the Games – the individual disciplines' World Cup results are an excellent predictor of major-championship success. For instance, the top 5 skiers from the 2025–26 World Cup have around a 70% chance of a medal at the next major championships.
Summary
Milano-Cortina 2026 was an outstanding success for Finland and an instructive experience for bettors. The key lesson: Olympic odds are famously slow to react – local knowledge and the season form of individual athletes pay off. The next Winter Olympics will be held in 2030 in the French Alps and the Pyrenees, and it's worth starting to follow now. The longer-term futures markets (e.g. medal nation 2030) typically open 1–2 years before the Games, and that's when the best value windows appear.